Projection: Obama will win the most delegates in Texas

Hillary Clinton won tonight’s popular vote in Texas, but it appears as though Barack Obama will win the most delegates from Texas.

The best primary delegate analysis is this spreadsheet, being updated live by the Burnt Orange Report crew. As it stands, at 1:00, Clinton is up by only 1 delegate, despite being over 100k votes ahead. By the percentages, this would put her at a 6 delegate lead.

So how is this possible? In Texas, and most other states, delegates are apportioned on a district-by district basis. In a district with 8 delegates (such as Austin), a candidate needs about 6 additional percentage points in order to gain an extra delegate. Going from 50 to 56 percent, or even to 62 percent is certainly reasonable.

However, in many smaller districts, with only 4 delegates, either Clinton or Obama would need 75% of the vote to get an extra delegate. In a race this close, that’s, for all intents and purposes, impossible.

So if we go back to the spreadsheet, we see that Obama performed much better in urban areas, which are also high-delegate districts. Much of Clinton’s strong support came from west and southwest Texas, which is more rural and contains fewer delegates per district. For example, Obama is winning Senate District 13 (Houston area) with nearly 75% of the vote, giving him a 5-2 delegate split there.

So, the delegate numbers from the primary will be very close, with Clinton likely to win by just a few delegates. The deciding factor will be the 67 delegates apportioned by the TX caucuses, where Obama leads by 12 points, with 22% of districts reporting. If this holds (and it’s expected to), Obama will pick up something in the neighborhood of 7 or 8 delegates, which should be enough to put him over the top.

I’ll leave it to the reader to decide whether this system is fair, but I will say that it’s every bit as fair as the electoral college. Just ask Al Gore.

Hillary Clinton Comes Back, Wins: Texas, Ohio, and Rhode Island

Hillary Clinton has turned her flagging campaign around in Texas and Ohio. Results from the Texas primary and from Ohio show Clinton will win the two states. Clinton’s Texas win was very close only 3% lead over Obama. I know I predicted it would be a 5 point lead but that wasn’t too far off. The caucus results are still outstanding.

Clinton’s Ohio win was a substantial margin that certainly gave her campaign renewed life. Rhode Island also went to Hillary. Millions more voters have decided that Hillary’s campaign deserves to continue onward. This is certainly welcome news for Hillary supporters and it means that we are going to go on to more elections in many more states.

I voted today!

I voted today at my local elementary school. There was a laundry list of judges on the ballot. So, it was a good thing I had e-mailed myself an endorsement list that I could at least use to figure out whats what on that end. My polling location was fairly quick and there was hardly any wait. If it hadn’t been for all of the political signs up on the front of the yard , I wouldn’t have known it was an election day. The caucus is still about 5 hours away. I will be brining my parents with me to the same school when the time comes.

All I have to say is that after all of this campaigning, I am relieved to have finally been able to cast my vote.  Now we wait…

Vote tomorrow!

Here are links to help you find your polling place and how to vote and caucus in that crazy Texas Two-step.

The links are to material made by the Obama campaign and supporters, but the info is the same no matter who you’re voting for.

Hillary Hosts Texas-Sized Town Hall

On Monday, March 3, Hillary will answer Texans’ questions in an unprecedented “The Stories of Texas: A Texas-sized Town Hall” giving voters in the Lone Star State the chance to make their voices heard.The town hall will be broadcast at 6:30 p.m. CST on Fox Sports Net (FSN) Southwest (click here to locate your channel) and be streamed online at HillaryClinton.com. Hillary will anchor the town hall in Austin.

For those Austinites that will be free aftewards Hillary will be holding a rally:

Right after the Live Broadcast of a Texas-Sized Town Hall, Hillary will be at Burger Activity Center in Austin for a special Election Eve Rally! Hillary has spent the past 35 years fighting for American families and she has real solutions to tackle the tough issues we’re facing. Join Hillary in Austin to learn more about her lifetime record of results. Doors open at 6:00PM.

Houston Obama & Michelle Rally Tomorrow

Obama will be in town tomorrow night for a ‘Stand for Change‘ Rally at the George R Brown Convention center:

Stand for Change Rally with Barack and Michelle Obama

George R. Brown Convention Center
Hall B3
1001 Avenida de las Americas
Houston, TX 77010

Monday, March 3, 2008
Doors Open: 8:00 p.m.

Registration required to attend.

Early Voting Ends in Texas. It’s Down to the Wire

Over the last couple of weeks, Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have been waging fierce advertising campaigns here in Texas. Not a day will go by when I don’t hear ads for either presidential candidate over my radio or see bumper stickers in the city streets of Houston.

While, Obama has largely been playing catch up and making serious gains in Clinton’s start of the year double digit lead, Clinton has been trying to stave off any momentum he might have built. The latest slew of polls shows this race is virtually even.

However, larger than expected early vote turnout has reached historical levels across Texas and it will be no surprise if come March 4th the lines are long and equally unprecedented turn out is reported. This news bodes well for Democrats in Texas, as Ian noted, and it also should cause a healthy dose of skepticism when trying to interpret polls. This is because polls are only as good as their sample sizes and it looks like their power to infer is diminishing as the number of actual voters grows far higher than expected.

I am certainly noticing a trend of Latinos to be staunchly behind Hillary here in Texas. While Obama, has made significant gains in her voting base, I don’t see that being the case here in Texas. I wouldn’t be surprised come Tuesday night if Clinton can claim a victory, but it maybe close (perhaps 5 points).

Update

For a completely opposite view point you can read the pro-Obama spin piece at dkos.  I have to say their argument for an Obama victory based on high turn out deserves some attention. I disagree with their assessment that high turn out helps Obama win. I clearly think quite the opposite. As they noted, Obama outperformed polls in places where Blacks were of substantial size of the turnout (GA, SC) but here in Texas Latinos are staunchly behind Clinton.

In the 2004 primaries, the number of registered Latinos was about 24% vs. 21% for Blacks. But, if turn out is growing as large as is being reported, then the sheer volume of Latinos versus Blacks (8.3 MM vs 2.7 MM - as per Texas 2006 census) clearly suggests they will make up a great portion on these increased voters. That being said I would bet that with upwards of 70% support in the Latino groups is going to be heavily favoring Clinton.

Alas we shall see come Tuesday.

CS Monitor: Rising Democratic Tide in TX

The Christian Science Monitor discusses the effect of a heated Democratic primary in driving renewed interest in the Democratic Party itself. The visibility of the contest is bringing Texas Democrats back into public life after a long hibernation of assumed irrelevance:

For most of his life Ken Stubbe has voted for Democrats for president. But as a resident of a deeply Republican suburb of Houston, in the heart of Bush country, the retired oil and gas project manager kept quiet.

[...] But the drawn-out fight for the Democratic presidential nomination is driving left-leaning Texans like Mr. Stubbe out of the closet, infusing them with a sense of relevance for the first time in a generation. Ahead of the Texas primary Tuesday, they are wearing buttons, putting up signs, and volunteering, even in GOP redoubts like this well-to-do city southwest of Houston.

Most significantly, as party activists see it, Texas Democrats are emerging from the shadows to vote. Democratic turnout at early-voting stations statewide is nearly four times 2004 levels and is exceeding Republican turnout even in the conservative Dallas and Houston suburbs.

Indeed, the massive Democratic primary turnout has busted all expectations, with ratios exceeding even those of the earlier contests.

Of course, it is probably safe to say many votes are open-primary Republican mischief. But that can’t explain the entire effect — and there is even the possibility those who cross party lines to vote/caucus might reconsider their affiliation in the general elections. Regardless, it’s hard to imagine this bloom in Texas Democrat registrations not translating into a deeper shift in the state political consciousness.
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Early Voting

Early voting numbers are WAY up in Texas. As in, almost a half-million Democratic voters have voted early. Those numbers are just astronomical.

My Response To Senator Cornyn - Tiahrt Amendment

Dear Senator Cornyn,

I strongly disagree that harsher criminal sentences would deter the likes of would be fanatical terrorists and psychologically disturbed gunmen. In today’s age, where terror can strike anywhere and by anyone it seems imprudent of our government to restrict funding to allow law enforcement agencies and the public from utilizing critical programs that may serve to identify cases where extremely deadly weapons may fall into the wrong hands. Please consider balancing your work on upholding the 2nd Amendment with some measure of perspective. Law abiding citizens are not in danger of losing their ability to own or carry guns and the repeal of the Tiahrt amendment is not going to add undue burden on the same citizens who use guns for hunting or other recreational law abiding activities.

Furthermore, I am disappointed that the Senate Appropriations Committee voted in favor of the Tiahrt Amendment. I feel strongly about this issue and will be advising my colleagues, friends, and family to support new candidates who will put the concerns of their constituents over those with powerful and rich political and economic interests. Please refer to this NY Times article which expresses my sentiment on this issue.

On 7/6/07, SenateWebmail@cornyn.senate.gov < SenateWebmail@cornyn.senate.gov> wrote:

Dear Mr. Lopez:

Thank you for contacting me regarding the “Tiahrt Amendment.” I appreciate having the benefit of your comments on this matter.
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