Delegate Update
With 40% of caucus returns in, Obama is still up 12% in Texas. It looks like both CNN and Burnt Orange have given her a 4-delegate lead from the primaries. At best, I’d say she may be able to squeak out a one-or two delegate margin, if everything goes her way in the caucus returns. (What’s taking so long, anyway?)
I still think Obama has a better-than even chance of winning the delegate count here in TX.
When all is said and done, it looks like Hillary picked up about 13 delegates on the night, despite winning 3 of the 4 states. To put that in perspective, it’s only slightly more than the 10 delegate lead that Obama picked up from Wisconsin alone. She needed the win to stay alive, and in that sense it was a good night for Hillary. Clinton still faces some daunting math though, where she’s down about 140 pledged delegates, and about 100 delegates total (including supers).
With Obama looking to win Wyoming and Mississippi easily in the upcoming weeks, this 14-delegate gain may very well be erased by the time they hit PA, on April 22. Clinton will need huge wins in PA and the subsequent states in order to build any kind of momentum that might lead her to collect more supers than Obama. That’s her only shot, as it’s almost impossible for her to catch him in pledged delegates at this point.
One thing is for sure, though: it’ll be interesting (and possibly exhausting) to watch these two battle it out for at least another month. As long as this race stays overwhelmingly positive, it keeps both candidates, and their Democratic ideals at the top of the news cycles, while McCain can only sit back and wait. The revitalization of party infrastructure in Pennsylvania, a key swing state, can also only be a good thing as we look ahead to a Democratic victory in November.
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